Forum Topic

Signs of the recession

Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed that there are a lot more cars driving around the streets of Ealing with only one headlight working?I think this is probably a sign of the recession, in that people aren't getting their cars serviced as frequently as they used to.Has anyone else noticed any local signs that we're entering a recession?

James de Vivenot ● 6504d67 Comments

I went for an eye-test at David Clulow's in the shopping centre - first visit there for months. And I passed eight vacant shops - none of which were empty (maybe Dixons) when I last visited.Recession + Westfield = dereliction

Sara Nathan ● 6504d

Dixons as a chain disbanded some time ago (well 2006 or thereabouts) although there is still an online presence. Currys Digital (part of DSG International)inhabited some of the sites left vacant by Dixons and in the case of Ealing.  As far as I know Currys Digital is still there.Many retailers have pulled out of The Broadway Centre due to rent/rates increases by the current landlord and even Phillip Green's empire has been affected by this by pulling all his stores from the Centre.  This together with the economic downturn has affected many retailers.

Diane Gill ● 6504d

In the case of many cars, manufactured in the last year or two James, the answer is more to do with the difficulty of changing headlight bulbs. Some Manufacturers have made it so difficult, that half the front of the car, that is grill bumper etc have to removed before access to the said headlight unit can be achieved. Not the sort of thing you can do on a wet Sunday Night on the M3! I guess the design is probably tied in with anticipated changes to LED Headlights which would last, in theory. the life of the car.Trouble is bulb development is behind design. The Construction and Use arm of Government should have cracked down on this, but it would seem have not!

Colin Vaughan ● 6504d

On the subject of cars, the roads seem quieter these last few weeks.

Susan Kelly ● 6504d

May be the roads are quieter because of smoother (worn-out) tyres! :)

Alan Brainsby ● 6504d

Perhaps some people are passing the time at Home, 'Ranting' on their Local Forums, or partaking of a 'Wee Dram' or two before that is taken from us by 'NANNY'

Colin Vaughan ● 6504d

Nanny can't afford to lose the tax on it, Colin.

Susan Kelly ● 6503d

How true Susan.

Colin Vaughan ● 6503d

THe only sign of the recession I have seen in central Ealing is the closure of KFH estate agents opposite Ealing Broadway station.The shops closing in EB Centre were a function of wrong location and not recession. When the pound shops start BOGOF offers we'll know it's happened.I think we have seen very little of the recession either locally or nationally. This recession in different from other post-war recessions in that is is global. Another interesting thing is that so many "professionals" are affected - bankers, estate agents, solicitors, many of whom will never be able to return to those professions. They also tended to earn more than the modal wage of £18 000. I fear this recession is going to be far deeper and far longer than any politician dare mention. It will cause a step-change in our attitude towards money, both in terms of saving and borrowing.

Alan Brainsby ● 6503d

Apart from the news of thousands losing their jobs every month, if you don't know personally someone who's lost their job in the past 3 months, you probably will soon.I know several (myself included, went to sign off my JSA claim yesterday) and all my friends know people who have been made redundant recently or are under threat. In my experience at least, it's unprecedented, but I suspect my age is half that of many forum users here and others will have experienced several recessions as adults in the past. I've never known multiple friends from a variety of industries/professions to all be losing their jobs at the same time.So for some at least the signs of the recession are very brightly lit.

Mark Dudley ● 6503d

I am sorry to hear your news Mark, and good luck for finding another.I fear that you and your friends are just the vanguard of what is to happen. If unemployment stays below 3 000 000 I shall be very surprised. I think 4-5 000 000 will be the realityThe potential knock-on effects of professional job losses are enormous. People on the modal salary of £18 000 would tend to spend most of their salaries on food, accommodation, clothes and transport. Earners above that are those that can buy new cars, houses, meals out, and so on - so-called luxury goods and services. With those punters gone what hope for car sales, restaurants, and the like?

Alan Brainsby ● 6503d

Will we be looking at a more sustainable economic model. As Thatcher and her son Tony both loved the City and that we did not require manufacturing then we are in big trouble. The Politicians know it but dare not speak it's name. We will have to adjust our lives back to the seventies if we are lucky!!

Peter Chadburn ● 6503d

Did anyone see the pictures of Oxford Street at the weekend? It was closed to traffic and it was just heaving with people who clearly haven't heard that they have no money.

Susan Kelly ● 6503d

There appear to be more burglaries in my area - including one involving my next door neighbour.Also people in Government appear to behaving irrationally by throwing large amounts of cash at failing endeavours like the US car industry and UK and US banks.And of course passengers on The Titanic could still hear the orchestra playing for quite a time after the iceberg ripped a fatal gash in the boat's 'unsinkable' hull.

Eric Alan Leach ● 6502d

Shoplifting is also a growth industry, I believe. Maybe none of those people in Oxford Street actually bought anything, just nicked it.

Susan Kelly ● 6502d

Not specific to Ealing but I just tried to borrow £5000. Tried both my banks who have been falling over themselves to offer their services but what a discrepancy in interest rates 13.75% APR vs 8.9% APR. Anyone got any hot tips for 'cheap' money?

Penny Crocker ● 6502d

And as for banks - I've visited Barclays on South Ealing Road twice in two weeks and BOTH times there was no queue at all. And only one bank teller.I can't recall this ever happening before in any bank for probably 30 years.

Eric Alan Leach ● 6502d

Soup Kitchens in Ealing Broadway next? Or even Chiswick High Road?? Shock Horror!!!!!

Colin Vaughan ● 6502d

Every time I walk past an estate agent, all I see is a lot of glum employees sitting at their desks. No customers; nobody out of the office taking instructions or showing houses.

Susan Kelly ● 6502d

I think it is more the case that they know they won't get nicked. A policeman told me that half the cars around here aren't taxed or insured and I'm sure that's the case elsewhere too. On the other hand, you only have to stay too long on a parking meter...

Richard Williams ● 6502d

I wake every day worrying about poor old estate agents having a hard time. Poor souls, they have only made a fortune for decades. I'm only surprised that Gordaon Brown hasn't bailed them out as he's done with the very rich bankers.

Eric Alan Leach ● 6502d

Re  A policeman told me that half the cars around here aren't taxed or insured and I'm sure that's the case elsewhere too        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx    I think half is a bit of an exageration but the number is very high in London because of the high number of immigrants, who so readily manage to acquire transport. Bearing in mind London is the highest rated district for motor insurance and the immigranys  either did not have a vehicle in their home country or did not have insurance with provable No Claims Discount, they are quoted gross premia here which are astronomical, much higher than the car probably cost, so they don't or can't bother with insurance. Which, even if they do have, the chances are it would not be operative as most do not have effective driving licences. Hence the number of hit and run accidents these days, almost unheard of years ago. We are all at great risk in London due to what your policeman said.

Tony Price ● 6500d

What's your evidence that tax and insurance evaders are immigrants Tony? My understanding is that a very large number are the indigenous population don't pay. I've never heard any attibutant to migration before.Isn't it a bit like in Northern Ireland with the TV licence fee? It's the lowest in the British Isles. Nothing to do with immmigration - unless you count the movement of the Scots into Ulster a few centuries ago. If you don't enforce collection, and they don't there, then people with limited resources don't pay - or in Ireland's case - make a financial virtue of a political opinion and won't pay. But it isn't followed up. That example is proveable. Is yours?

Sara Nathan ● 6499d

Immigration to Northern Ireland is much lower than the rest of the United Kingdom partly because of lack of employment opportunities and it is not so easy to "disappear" in that community.Official figures given out in this country are a fudge as is the news. For instance; some victim gets beaten up, identified only by sex.. Why not race? That's just as obvious.It is biased reporting in the local newspaper that non-indigs are over-represented in benefit fraud, gun-crime, and hit-and-run accidents?To my mind the evidence we require is deliberately withheld or obfuscated.If we have a large number of indigenous underclass who break the law we don't need to import further law-breakers.Perhaps we need a co-ordinated clampdown by the police, council, UKBA, DVLA, and any other relevant authority, to check every vehicle circulating in Ealing.This will probably never happen as the problem is so overwhelming.BTW the Council a few years back was going to do a survey of illegal (unauthorized) crossings from the highway to front gardens. Did it happen?

Alan Brainsby ● 6499d

The DVLA has twice paid a visit to my West Ealing area this year and has clamped several vehicles on both occasions so something is being done about it.Further integration of databases is already on the way to show the enquirer (police etc) if any vehicle on the road is insured.The province of British Columbia in Canada has an interesting approach to eliminate uninsured vehicles.  All third party insurance must be bought from the goverment and a sticker (like our tax disc) must be displayed on the numberplate proving the insurance is current.  Drivers then buy fully comp and other premiums from the insurance market.  Simple eh?

Jerry Pattison ● 6499d

I read in the Times a few weeks ago that there's a network of cameras which photograph our license plates as we go by, then check that we are taxed, insured and MOTed. So something is being done.

Susan Kelly ● 6499d

Something is being done..... but not much. We've had computerized systems for years, only now are they becoming interconnected and most of that is being done by the insurance companies rather than the government.If a motor insurance company can state in its TV advertising that 5% of cars/drivers are not insured then something is clearly wrong.I like the BC system of 3rd party insurance, and the German system of MOT test expiry on the rear number-plate.How does Germany do it though - fewer than 0.25% of cars are illegally running on their roads? Perhaps their extra 20 000 000 population are all police officers.It was reported in the Daily Telegraph a while back that a clampdown in Hackney caught a good few "A-list" cars, including a Hummer, stretch limo, and several large German-made cars.

Alan Brainsby ● 6499d

Back to the original question....Gordon Brown running away and poncing about on the world stage in India, Afghanistan and wherever else is a sign of the recession. Here the last place he wants to be in cos' we are in such a financial mess. And he was complicit in causing the mess by his actions and inactions over the last 11 years.

Eric Alan Leach ● 6499d

Re  That example is proveable. Is yours?        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx      I sincerely hope those who champion immigration and all things emanating therefrom are very grateful to you for your constant support  and your attacking those who witness the adverse effects. How would you explain the Pissing in shop doorways, blatant drug dealing and abuse of Local Authority Planning that goes on in Acton ( see the appropriate threads on the  Acton Forum ). As far as the non licenced non insurance drivers is concerned that was explained in my post, read more carefully.

Tony Price ● 6499d

Re  All third party insurance must be bought from the goverment and a sticker (like our tax disc) must be displayed on the numberplate proving the insurance is current.          xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx        it could be a partial step in the right direction if the discs or whatever are not able to be forged but even if there is an insurance policy in existence it does not meean it is in force. So many immigrants do not have driving licences valid in UK , a necessary factor for legally binding insurance. Sadly, I know many such persons, in fact most do not have driving licences but who regularly drive and it is "not unknown " for " friendly motor traders " to tax vehicles for a fee using their motor traders insurance, thus the vehicle sports a tax disc and is recorded at DVLA as taxed and insured, which for the latter it is not. I know Kosovars, Chinese,and Iraqis who fall into the  unlicenced category and to whom one harangues constantly.

Tony Price ● 6499d

Of course we should expect proportionately more unlicensed, uninsured, and unroadworthy vehicles on our roads as the recession continues, while the honest car-users give up their vehicles as they cannot afford to run them.

Alan Brainsby ● 6499d

I don't champion unchecked immigration at all - nor is there any evidence for you to say I do. What I do oppose is the attribution of all ills to immigrants and their descendents without any evidence to back it up. You make wild claims about any and every topic, bringing them all back to foreigners. But it's all assertion and it comes across, though that may not be your intention, as motivated by racism.Apart from anything else, it becomes tedious by repetition, so forgive me if I don't engage in these futile debates with you any further.

Sara Nathan ● 6499d

Re  a network of cameras which photograph our license plates as we go by, then check that we are taxed, insured and MOTed.          xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx        some Police vehicles now have these,( been forced to with the rise of untaxed / uninsured vehicles  due to the rise in immigration by persons from countries where insurance was not mandatory or unprovable ). Last year I had to " rescue " a friend who I had been haranging for years re his misdemeanours and who got caught by such an equiped Police vehicle. Not only did this friend not have a licence, his car was not taxed and I had to get his car back from impoundment for him using my insurance and licence. He now has tax, thanks to friendly motor trader, but still no driving licence. He tells me he has now effected insurance as well but I know even if he has, it is not valid beecause of no licence and non disclosure.

Tony Price ● 6499d

I popped into Fortnum & Mason this morning, just to look as I'm not paying £10 for six mince pies. People were flooding in, though and, unlike me, buying. Recession? What recession?

Susan Kelly ● 6498d

Yes, well even during the war there was no rationing at the Ritz. It's always who you ask and where you look.......

Penny Crocker ● 6498d

on a slightly different end of the scale..has anyone passed by a Woolworths in the last few days? The shelves are like an East German supermarket..empty. It's like vultures picking over the bones..........very sad.

Penny Crocker ● 6498d

Lots of languages being spoken all over the West End today so I think it's true that tourists are flocking in to take advantage of both the sales and the weak pound. Good news, I suppose.

Susan Kelly ● 6498d

Re  I popped into Fortnum & Mason this morning, just to look as I'm not paying £10 for six mince pies.             xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx      just as well, 'cos in a recent survey I read ( Which I think ) they came out VERY badly compared to others. Surprisingly to a those involved, I thnk it was Aldi's that came out top, or at least one of that ilk.

Tony Price ● 6498d

Re  It's like vultures picking over the bones..........very sad.           xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx yep, can't say I was a fan of Woollies in recent years but yet another part of the true British scene gone.

Tony Price ● 6498d

That doesn't surprise me. I've often been dismayed over the years by the poor quality of 'premium' brands such as Duchy Originals.

Susan Kelly ● 6497d

Duchy Originals are usually awful.....agreed.

Penny Crocker ● 6497d

Why is it that people buy expensive food?Is it the comfort factor of "it costs more so it must be better/tastier/healthier?" None of which is necessarily true.

Alan Brainsby ● 6497d

Yep, like people vote Conservative coz they think it's posh !

Penny Crocker ● 6497d

That's reassuring news to boost votes.I always thought only the more intelligent part of the electorate voted Conservative.  ;)

Alan Brainsby ● 6497d

People may buy foods with Fortnum & Mason labels as presents, to prove they spent a lot.

Susan Kelly ● 6497d

OUCH!!!!!

Colin Vaughan ● 6497d

Intelligence...........maybe, maybe not, social pretension.very possibly

Penny Crocker ● 6497d

Re  Is it the comfort factor of "it costs more so it must be better/tastier/healthier?" None of which is necessarily true.        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx          the biggest con apparently is so called organic foodstuffs, which so tests show carry traces of many chemical pesticides used. Vegetables straight out of the garden do taste better but because of freshness, I would say. How about organic bananas?.

Tony Price ● 6497d

I can't see the use of organic bananas myself as if pesticides were used the surely they wouldn't 'seep' through the skin?  I think it's much better to buy Fairtrade and most supermarkets these days stock Fairtrade as their standard range.

Diane Gill ● 6496d

Re  I can't see the use of organic bananas myself as if pesticides were used the surely they wouldn't 'seep' through the skin?            xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx    exactly, what one eats is within a thick skin and high up a tree, so how they can be genuinely "organic " escapes me, but the con goes on.

Tony Price ● 6496d

i went on a banana diet once..i didnt lose any weight but you should have seen me climb a tree..

bobby osborne ● 6496d

Wonder what the cabbage soup diet would have you do Bobby?!

Diane Gill ● 6495d

Crawl like a caterpiller perhaps?

Eric Alan Leach ● 6495d

What happens to one on a diet of chicken soup...... run around like a headless chicken?

Alan Brainsby ● 6495d

Re  i didnt lose any weight but you should have seen me climb a tree..            xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx          very good!!

Tony Price ● 6495d

Re  Wonder what the cabbage soup diet would have you do Bobby?!          xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx        oh gawd, now you've started something, be brussel sprouts or baked beans next !

Tony Price ● 6495d

Baked bean soup is delicious and just the thing for a recession. Feed the whole family for 20p.

Susan Kelly ● 6495d

Take a look at www.bleedtheworld.com as this will put things in perspective. When you remember the original it shows how our modern concerns are away from reality!! No doubting we are in a mess but will we have a step back into a moree real economy. Thatcher and her Children Tony and Prudence have slavishly worshipped the City, at the expense of other forms of work. We could all work in the Service industries to support these wonderfull Hedge Fund Managers. So take a listen, have a chuckle and get some perspective!!

Peter Chadburn ● 6495d

I assume the baked bean soup isn't made with a Heinz tin??!! - Just add water - Euk!

Diane Gill ● 6495d

20p?What - a third to a half of a can?

Alan Brainsby ● 6495d

I believe you can buy 'value' tins of beans for a few pence at somewhere called -- is it? -- Tesco?

Susan Kelly ● 6494d

Re  Has anyone else noticed any local signs that we're entering a recession?        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx    I came home a little sad this afternoon after visiting the Town Centre, where yet another  shop is in the process of closing down and not re-opening elsewhere in Ealing. Tchibo always seemed to me to be doing a brisk trade and sold good quality goods, but no longer it seems. Whether their local demise is due to the recession or rising rent and rates I do not know but whenever going unto the centre a visit to Tchibo was always one of interest and resulted in many " impulse " purchases. So something else of Ealing  is going, not really much of great interest left. When I  moved to Ealing in 1972 I could buy more or less anything I needed /  wanted and there were many specialist shops. All gone apart from a very small number. Oh how I wish one could turn the clock back to those days, and for many reasons.

Tony Price ● 6494d

Sainsbury's basics baked beans are 29p!  (never bought them) just shopping online and seen them when buying Heinz

Diane Gill ● 6494d

Tchibo I think was one of the places for impulse buys and I guess there is less of that at present, people will buy what they need not necessarily what they want.  I doubt they made enough money just selling coffee and cake and there is enough competition in Ealing in that regard.  I know the rent/rates have gone up in the Broadway Centre so lets see how many more go over the next few months...

Diane Gill ● 6494d

Heinz are best, one of the few branded goods I insist om; something about the texture.

Susan Kelly ● 6494d

It's good that you're mourning the passing of a German company in Ealing Tony.   It leaves me a bit confused however,I've been avoiding Polish hairdressers like the plague for the last couple of weeks.  Melancholia? Who cares?

Tony Wood ● 6494d

Re It's good that you're mourning the passing of a German company in Ealing Tony.   It leaves me a bit confused however,I've been avoiding Polish hairdressers like the plague for the last couple of weeks.  Melancholia? Who cares?                xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx    Judging by your first name I assume you are male, so avoiding ladies hairdressers of any nationality in any location I would have thought to be taken for granted. However, and I am not aware of anyone coming onto this Forum to specifically advertise / recommend the patronage of a German business as such so I don't think your comment in that respect is of much import, and as to your dismissal of preferring Ealing as it was, one can only assume you fit in more as it is than as it was, so no further comment.

Tony Price ● 6493d