The vote WILL go against the Southall Tories next year, and if they've got any sense they will then allow themselves to sink into obscurity.No one has yet mentioned on this thread that the newly re-drawn Ealing Southall constituency is much LESS white (it loses two - or is it three - mainly white wards in the Ealing area) and much MORE Asian (being, as a consequence, more dominated by the five Southall wards).That simple fact alone makes it more hopeless for the Tories at the parliamentary level.The only chance the Tories have got - and it is an outside chance - is that they may attempt to use the religious card to try and hold their defectors' seats in Southall Broadway Ward.The crucial thing here is that the three Tory candidates comprise two Sikhs and one Hindu; whereas the three Labour candidates comprise two Muslims and one Hindu.About a half of the population of the ward is Sikh, and only one quarter Muslim. The important thing to bear in mind (if you're English) is that Asian people can tell the difference between a Sikh, Hindu and Muslim name: they're all very distinctive. The Tories will try to make play of this (I know, because when the defectors were in the Labour Party, I campaigned alongside them and observed their tactics).They will hope that this factor - combined with a sizeable Tory lead in the nationwide polls - will enable them to squeeze out a victory. Certainly, some elderly traditional Sikhs - who would normally vote Labour - might find their loyalty tested when confronted with a ballot sheet that has Muslim Labour candidates and Sikh Tory candidates.The other defectors' ward - Lady Margaret - is one where the Tories have very little chance because although it is the ward that Gurcharan Singh is defending, as far as I know Labour may have selected a Sikh/Hindu ticket to stand against him. (I'm not 100% sure about this but I do know that at least one of Labour's candidates there is a Hindu woman, and Sikhs really tend not to discriminate against Hindu candidates). Personally, I still think Labour will make a clean sweep of all the Southall wards, because too many in the younger Asian generation have a secular outlook (and also because some residents think that Gurcharan Singh and his colleagues have made themselves look like fools).Whatever happens though, expect a massive turnout - especially in Southall Broadway Ward - where the likelihood of the Tories playing the religious card is sure to result in the Mosques and Gurdwaras mobilising their efforts behind their respective candidates.
Robin Taylor ● 6151d