Forum Topic

A selective truth

Crime statistics for Ealing.In Feb 2008 total notifiable offences were 2855. In Jan 2010 they dropped to 2612In Feb 2008 Ealing had the fourth highest notifiable offences out of 33 boroughs. In Jan 2010 Ealing had the sixth highest.So Ealing’s position has improved – albeit slowly. But is that still the case?From Jan 2009 to Jan 2010 there was an increase in total crimes reported in the borough from 32681 to 33129 -. including violent crimes up by 3% (which number far more than any other type of local crime). And yet in London overall, there was a decrease in total crimes reported from 848183 to 827798. In residents surveys Ealing people always say crime is the most important issue, and yet this year 94% said they felt safe. The Ealing people also said they are marginally more satisfied with how Ealing is policed than did the residents in all London. As crime overall in London has dropped but in Ealing it has gone up, then I would say the poll is not worth the paper it is written on. If Ealing people were better informed they should be asking why the Ealing figures have gone up but London’s figures have gone down.If Around Ealing put these figures into context against the overall London figures for the last 12 months, I would be asking why the Tory Council has failed to meet one of its 3 key strategic objectives. Around Ealing has a duty to contextualise statistics rather than allowing this rag to be used as a political mouthpiece. Why? Because in the residents survey, residents said they used this paper more than any other for sourcing Council information. Without contextualisation I would say that some will misinterpret the big picture because of a twisted presentation. That is why I cannot respect this paper.In the Council meeting tonight, the Councillors will see key crime figures shown as dropping. See pages 10 and 11 of the BUDGET STRATEGY AND COUNCIL TAX 2010/11 document. http://www.ealing.gov.uk/ealing3/export/sites/ealingweb/services/council/committees/agendas_minutes_reports/council/19may2009-24may2010/_9_march_2010/item_9_budget_strategy_report.pdfI just hope the authors of the Council paper know what they are doing - because it appears to me that the statistics which they have chosen are the ones which best suit their arguments. The paper certainly fails to mention that Ealing has some of the highest crime rates in all London and omits the latest crimes statistics for Ealing which I have sourced from the Metropolitan Police website.Is that what you call selectivity - or is it fair comment?

George Knox ● 6045d32 Comments

As I presume Eric Leach is referring to me, and I am the Cabinet Member for Safer Communities in Ealing, I’ll venture into W5 from my usual nesting place in actonw3.com.George Knox might want to set out all the figures and set them out properly. The figures he quote are on the Met’s website (http://www.met.police.uk/crimefigures/datatable.php?borough=xb&period=year) and are not very user friendly as they show totals and some – but not all – of the breakdown for the two most recent years to January 2010. Here are the recorded crime figures for Ealing for calendar years 2008 and 2009 (the latter in brackets), with a full breakdown of the total. Violence Against the Person -  7,631  (7,773)Sexual Offences                –    309    (342)Robbery                            -  1,433  (1,294)Burglary                            -  3,949  (3,956)Theft and Handling            - 10,186 (10,842)Fraud or Forgery                -  2,059  (2,466)Criminal Damage              -  3,527  (3,561)Drugs                              -  3,361  (2,545)Other Offences                  –    442    (414)Total Offences                  - 32,897 (33,193)And here is a comparison of recorded crime changes in Ealing between 2008 and 2009 with those across London as a whole– the first figures are for Ealing, the ones in brackets are for London.                                                  Violence Against The Person      142    1.9%      (    868    0.5%)Sexual Offences                          33  10.7%    (    710    8.0%)Robbery                                    -139  -9.7%    (  -241    -0.7%)Burglary                                        7    0.2%    (  2,340    2.5%)Theft & Handling                        656    6.4%      (-5,494    -1.7%)Fraud & Forgery                        407  19.8%    (  -986    -2.6%)Criminal Damage                        34    1.0%    (-6,811    -7.0%)Drugs                                        -816  -24.3%  ( -9,973  -12.8%)Other Notifiable Offences            -28  -6.3%    (    305    2.6%)Total Offences                          296    0.9%      (-19,282    -2.3%) A mixed bag. Ealing did better on robbery, burglary and drugs that London but worse in theft and fraud. Within the theft category, the biggest increase was in theft from vehicles (up 490). I raised this with the police, who acknowledged that this had been a very big problem in the first half and more effort had been put into this latterly (through measures such as using ‘decoy’ vehicles to catch engaging in a quick smash and grab) but this hasn’t made up for problems earlier in the year. Fraud and forgery is intriguing area. The Met’s definition of this is “Dishonestly deceiving to obtain either property or a pecuniary advantage. Recorded crime statistics are collected for: fraud by company director; false accounting; cheque and credit card fraud; other frauds; bankruptcy and insolvency offences; forgery or use of false drug prescription; other forgery; vehicle/driver document fraud. Fraud is mainly a crime against commercial organisations” Why this should be becoming so much more prevalent in Ealing is not obvious, but I shall have an opportunity to discuss this with the police shortly. As a crime mainly affecting businesses, increases in fraud are very unlikely to affect the public’s perception of their personal safety.It does raise the broader question of what contribution a local authority can make to law and order. The Council’s initiatives of alley gating, funding PCSOs, more and better CCTV might be expected to have an impact on street crime and burglary and the figures are consistent with this.Eric Leach’s complaint that police don’t have a station in his ward is just silly in the age of the mobile phone and internet. What matters is where the police do their work and that will be driven by where crime occurs, which is not distributed evenly across the borough, let alone London or the country. By the way, there’s a rumour that Eric Leach will be standing as an independent candidate in Walpole ward in the local elections on 6th May. Any truth in this?

Vlod Barchuk ● 6042d

I find some of Vlod Barchuk’s response odd.  The longest paragraph in his post concerns fraud and forgery and he concludes that the increase of this crime in Ealing is unlikely to affect the public’s perception of personal safety. Typical ploy in a cheap endeavour to try and get us to take our eye off the ball.The ball in bottom line figures is that crime in Ealing has gone up over the last 12 months. Some the crimes concerning a form of physical violence have gone up which get scant acknowledgement in the post. Of the nine categories of crime given by the police five of them have gone up. In my opinion the Cabinet papers this week re the crime stats were misleading, and this Cabinet member has not dared to address/rebut this serious observation. I wonder how some of the Council staff feel about this, but of course through legal constraint they are not allowed to engage.He says he has raised these crime increases with the police. Well I recently spotted the figures and I also raised the question. Any one can do that. He does not say what action plan was agreed. In his third paragraph from the end he asks what contribution a council can make to better policing. He answers but in part only and does not say what more can be done. Yet his whole fundamental key strategy is to make Ealing a safer place. Had he asked this question four years ago that would have been reasonable. I would have thought by now he would have a far better idea on how to tackle crime. As I said Ealing now has dropped from position 4 to 6 in the worst borough crime rankings.  I would have expected far greater success. Conclusion. Tory Council failed to meet one of its three key objectives. Why? Well it gives money away and it cuts expenditure.

George Knox ● 6042d

I am perfectly happy that on reading all my posts as a whole on this thread that I have made some very valid points which make for justifiably uncomfortable reading, and which have not been properly answered.. Councillor Vlod now says Over a decade of simplistic target setting by this Government shows that focus on apparently simple figures distorts priorities. Also he complains about proving a point with statistics.Councillor Phil on his website uses perceptions of a few thousand people to make the point that crime is what concerns the people of Ealing most.Councillor Vlod also calls for an intelligent debate without starting one himself even though he is paid to be in the picture.At the moment I have an almost incontrovertible impression that violent crime is the biggest problem, and that crime is rising in Ealing unlike in London as a whole. If you wish to dispel that impression, then please do so, but not with soundbites about past successes and not in a selective fashion. So why don’t you refer to a couple of papers or so with links which set out a well reasoned analysis as to what really is going on in Ealing, and also how the crime problems have been responded to in terms of policy, and what successes and failures we have been having, and where the policy has been tweaked to meet areas of slippage. We could then begin to appreciate what Councillor Vlod means by his use of the word priorities and perhaps understand the role of the Council and the role of the police and the parameters in which they operate. We could also then have a better tool for deciding whether we agree with his set of priorities.If you do not like priorities being distorted by the government, but you think you deserve credit and continuing trust for alleged success by using some different and perhaps better methodology, then let’s have the evidence.As is known I like evidence in context. I suspect that Councillor Vlod does as well. How else can informed decisions be made?

George Knox ● 6038d

This 'debate' does not seem to be going anywhere and is starting to get personal, rather than addressing the facts. Such as they are available. One of the biggest problems is that this Govt has for ever been changing the definitions on a number of crimes and the police have struggled to keep up with recording specific types of crime in the correct 'box'.So it is almost impossible to get a year-over-year 'like-for-like' comparison.As for Ward Offices - it was never the intention that SNT's would use their bases as mini police stations that people could drop into. They were to be, and are, bases where officers could parade and keep their kit. Thus avoiding travel time from the main police stations. Even here the devil is in the detail as the Mets budgets have never been sufficient to secure an office in every ward and some wards have had to double up. Although with access to some refurbished council buildings providing accomodation the situation has improved.SNT's are encouraged to get out and meet their local population and in East Acton the SNT have been out to every business/ flat/house to try and meet every person living/ working in their ward. Also providing them with a fridge magnet which has their contact details on it and reporting of ASB, flytipping etc.If you want to get up to date performance figures come along to Ealing Town Hall at 7pm next Wednesday, March 24 - Liz Cantell Room and listen to the Borough Commanders performance review at the Ealing Community & Police Consulative Group meeting - it's open to all.There will also be a presentation from the 'Transport Hub Team' on their work in dealing with crime on the buses and trains. Plus the Council's Community Safety Team on ASB, envirocrime and dealing with issues around HMO's.Indeed, if you come at 6:30 you will also get a free cup of tea/ coffee and some nibbles!

Charles Gallichan ● 6036d

Councillor Vlod, we need more substance from you please as to why you think you may have met your strategic target in making Ealing a safer place – when the figures are not helping you.It would be good to attend the meeting, but I feel it would be better to publish so that those who cannot make these evening meetings can nevertheless have the opportunity to understand the effectiveness of policing in our borough as well as the barriers it faces up to. Also Charles says the meeting will provide the most up to date figures. Well and very good, but should he have also said that Ealings Police strategy will be discussed as well? I expect it will, but it would be nice to know. And as PT (speaking from the safest Ward in the whole borough) says, the Commander should not hide his light beneath a bushel. He should publish and publish and publish.I am aware that police stats are not the easiest to compare, but two things. The Council will use them if it suits their arguments, which clearly they did not on this occasion. The most recent available figures show an increase. If these are so unreliable that we cannot draw a conclusion that crime has gone up or gone down, what are we the voters to make of the figures? Surely we have to get a general feel of the trend even though the figures are not quite comparable?  Vlod says that he thinks that the majority of people would want more police on the beat. I accept that it is part of the police role to make people feel safer. That has always been my feeling, but now that I think about it, how effective is this? Obviously visual sightings make people feel safer, but feeling safer against sets of adverse figures is not what I want. I want to see a reduction in crime. How that is done is not for me to say because I am not a policeman. But it is for Vlod to say after he has studied and discussed all the options. If fewer police were on the beat, but allocated to other kinds of crime would they get better results? How is it that Vlod says having less police on the beat is a no brainer, especially as the perception in the questionnaires are showing improvements and so suggest alternative areas to fight? He needs to produce evidence before he can be so sure. Can the funding from the Council provide more police rather than PCSOs who have lesser powers? Could PCSOs do other tasks which may have a greater impact on reducing the crime? How also are the police going to operate in the next year or so if their funding is to be reduced? Is Vlod campaigning with Boris to get the powers of PCSOs increased? As violent crime is the biggest problem, what evidence has Vlod got to persuade him that we have the best strategy to fight it? If more criminals come from outside Ealing to do their dirty work here, then why is the Council failing to get Boris to act on our problems if crime is going down in London overall, but up in Ealing?Arthur talks about Ward stats. I am really glad that I can see what goes on in my sub Ward. I see I live in a much safer sub ward than most others. Kindly never lose that piece of information.I am sure there are many more people who read what is going on rather than glean information from meetings. That is why I have asked Vlod to give us some evidence by referring to links so that we can try and think sensibly about what is clearly a very difficult issue.But I have to object most strongly about this Council if they try to give us the impression that Ealing is a safer place unless they give us some evidence on what they have agreed with the police and what actual results have been achieved which actually do make us safer, rather than make us feel safer.If Vlod cannot give us more concrete material then I and others will be left wondering why this Tory Council has not succeeded on one of its three key strategic issues.

George Knox ● 6032d

Eric and Arthur,I will try and address the points you have raised and I hope also provide some new information/ clarity.I have no problem that there is a debate around police performance.As for year -over-year measurement, yes some are useful, whilst others are not. My complaints to the Home Office/ Met HQ have been that if you 'redefine' a crime and move it from one category to another then it makes comparison very difficult, if not impossible. We also have to recognise that 'responsibility' for dealing with some issues - noteably traffic offences - have moved from the police to councils. So they no longer appear in police stats. In my view it's one thing change the 'baseline' on govt expenditure ( an issue to be debated on another thread), another to do it with crime stats.There is also the whole issue of what happens once an offender is taken to court and what happens to them afterwards. I am not proposing that we 'lock them up and throw away the keys', but if one looks at the rate of reoffending, the system clearly isn't working.As for the 'no brainer' comment, I simply don't understand why this was refered to in response to my posting. I don't think I used it or refered to it.With regard to the SNT 'shops'I will need to check how many are in what were retail outlets. I think it is the minority, but given the results of the recession and the amount od 'retail' premises available, I suspect that these are some of the cheapest properties for rent in the borough.These offices do have computers in them, filing cabinets etc to allow officers to file their reports and do their admin without having to go to the main police stations. On occassion officers do arrange to meet local residents in them. But the whole idea of SNT's was and remains to get officers out from behind desks or cruising in cars and get out on the streets to patrol and meet people. They can and do use local halls, schools etc to hold their ward forum meetings. So we do not want them operating 'front desks' for people to drop in unannounced, as this would necesitate an officer remaining in the office, rather than getting out and about.The East Acton Ward Team calling on every resident was the Ward Sergeant's idea, which his team bought into. He brought the idea to the Ward Panel and we endorsed it. There were some concerns expressed by Senior Officers - not the Borough Commander - at Scotland Yard about how long it would take and what impact it would have. When they learnt that the local Panel were in favour, they decided to let it run and are now considering if in fact every ward team in London should do the same.The Team have found difficulties, as calling in normal working hours resulted in too many 'failed' contacts. So most calls are now done when the team are on weekend shifts. Overall it appears to be going well and rather worryingly they are finding many who are still unaware that SNT's exist.The good news is that a lot of new intelligence has been gathered in what is the largest ward in the borough, with historically one of the worst crime rates. In recent months the rates have been improving in those categories where direct comparison are possible.The ECPCG would welcome a full house at our next meeting and there you can put your questions directly to the Borough Commander.

Charles Gallichan ● 6032d

Councillor Vlod, have you gone to ground? I hoped that we might see some publication concerning that recent meeting.I looked briefly around the internet. The Ealing Community and Police Consultative Group get a mention on the Met police site but there is no reference to minutes of meetings which they hold. So how does the public know what they talk about and what planning proposals are aired at those meetings? Do the tax payers fund this organisation?In contrast, almost on the first Google search page, I chanced upon a Hillingdon Community & Police Consultative Group Newsletter. It did give an overview of what is going on that borough and what was said at their meeting.I also saw that last year you chaired a Safer Ealing Partnership Executive Board, but the minutes of the meeting were waffly, peppered with meaningless acronyms, I was not greatly the wiser. The reference to the Performance report did not give a clear picture of what is going on in Ealing. The meeting was attended by the chair of the Ealing Community and Police Consultative Group. In September he asked for feedback on worsening performance.Is your silence in response to an invitation to engage in discussion in this thread something to do with there is a paucity of information in our borough in contrast to in Hillingdon? Is that something to do with management in your portfolio, or is it that I just have not been able to find some information? Why have you not asked for meeting minutes, and where are they for public scrutiny?That Board meeting report did not fill me confidence that you Tories are meeting Ealing’s key manifesto strategic objective – that we live in a safer community.If you remain silent, perhaps another party will propose a more professional approach.

George Knox ● 6021d

Councillor Vlod, have you gone to ground? I hoped that we might see some publication concerning that recent meeting.I looked briefly around the internet. The Ealing Community and Police Consultative Group get a mention on the Met police site but there is no reference to minutes of meetings which they hold. So how does the public know what they talk about and what planning proposals are aired at those meetings? Do the tax payers fund this organisation?In contrast, almost on the first Google search page, I chanced upon a Hillingdon Community & Police Consultative Group Newsletter. It did give an overview of what is going on that borough and what was said at their meeting.I also saw that last year you chaired a Safer Ealing Partnership Executive Board, but the minutes of the meeting were waffly, peppered with meaningless acronyms, I was not greatly the wiser. The reference to the Performance report did not give a clear picture of what is going on in Ealing. The meeting was attended by the chair of the Ealing Community and Police Consultative Group. In September he asked for feedback on worsening performance.Is your silence in response to an invitation to engage in discussion in this thread something to do with there is a paucity of information in our borough in contrast to in Hillingdon? Is that something to do with management in your portfolio, or is it that I just have not been able to find some information? Why have you not asked for meeting minutes, and where are they for public scrutiny?That Board meeting report did not fill me confidence that you Tories are meeting Ealing’s key manifesto strategic objective – that we live in a safer community.If you remain silent, perhaps another party will propose a more professional approach.

George Knox ● 6021d

George,We are not beholden to the Council, nor indeed the Police, but in fairness if any minutes from ECPCG meetings are to appear on this site it is down to us. Not Councillor Vlod.Following my recent postings, I have communicated with the Editor to look at the best way of achieving this. I should warn you that they will not appear immediately, as they will need to be approved by the Management Committee before they are published.Meanwhile, you could always join our Group and get the minutes by post. Beter still, come along to the meetings.You ask if we are funded by tax payers? Well yes, in that we receive a grant from the MPA to cover our limited admin - one part-time staff - postage, meeting costs etc. We receive no funds from Ealing Council.We are looking at having our own website and linking it to this one, but it will depend on costs and time available. All management committee members are volunteers and support the Group in their own time. (So before you ask - no we do not receive any expenses for our time, travel or anything else).As for the key issue,is Ealing getting safer? Well in recent years the crime trends have all been down. Although this year Residential Burglary and Robbery is broadly 'static'. No real surprise in a recession - speaking personally I had expected that matters would actually be worse. Youth violence can not be compared as the recording criteria has changed. See my earlier posting. Tie this in with six out of ten press releases from the Home office having "statistical omissions" and no wonder it is difficult to get true measure of what is going on. What I can say is the level and quality of 'partnership working' by the Police and Council has vastly improved in recent years and Ealing Council is one of the few boroughs that has additional PCSO's funded by the Council. We also now have a schools officer in every secondary school.Finally, I would like to point out that your PCG puts in more hours on the streets monitoring policing of key events (often in to the early hours) such as Eid, Acton Carnival, Diwali etc. than any other PCG in London. It may be that this leaves us short on admin time, but I beleive that being out and about seeing what is happening is the more important.

Charles Gallichan ● 6020d