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The fatal flaw with Brexit?

The leak of the Government impact assessments that show economic growth will be significantly lower under any Brexit scenario isn't really going to change much. Most Leave supporters have been honest enough to accept that there will be some economic pain but believe this is worth it due to the gains they perceive in increased national sovereignty.Let's assume that these reports are wrong and that they drastically underestimate the potential of a post Brexit Britain to strike trade deals that will more than compensate for reduced access to the single market and that ultimately leaving the EU will make us all richer. The problem here is that although overall in this scenario there would be more winners and losers, the losers will be announced before we know who the winners are. The economic adjustment that needs to take place, even in an ultimately positive change, will first require industries who rely on single market access to retrench. There will be a lag before the positive impact of all the new trade deals feed through as it can take months and years to build up supply chains and penetrate new markets.The more access we want to the single market the less flexibility we will be allowed in determining our own trade policies. If Theresa May had got the majority she wanted last year she would still have had problems pushing through a Brexit deal that delivered lots of upfront economic pain due to a desire to conduct more independent trade deals. Now with the majority of her own MPs in favour of a softer Brexit and her grip on power tenuous she doesn't seem to have any choice but to move towards a deal which delivers the kind of modest changes that Philip Hammond described. The small rump of hard core Brexiteers led by Jacob Rees-Mogg will make a lot of noise but they won't force an election.So it looks like we end up with situation that nobody wants. We will be out of the EU but with a trading arrangement that looks little different to what we have now. We will almost certainly be required to adhere to EU standards but now will have no say in what they are. Freedom of Movement may end but there will be a modified system of preferential access for EU citizens that will look a lot like it.The only thing that could be said for the new situation is that it will reunite the nation as everybody will be able to agree we are worse off than we were before. We will be economically poorer, we will have lost many of the benefits of EU membership, our sovereignty will actually be diluted rather than enhanced, we will have given away control not taken it back and we will have little or no more control of our borders than we had before.

Andy Jones ● 3151d15 Comments ● 3137d